⚠️ Shiller PE Ratio — Crash Intelligence Dashboard

Connection between the CAPE ratio and historic S&P 500 crashes • Statistical crash probability

🔴 LIVE DATA • Oct 28, 2026 — CAPE: 41.04
🚨

EXTREME VALUATION ZONE — CAPE = 41.04

The current Shiller PE ratio stands at 41.04 — that is 2.35× the historical average (17.44). Only twice in history has the CAPE been higher: just before the Dot-com crash of 2000 (CAPE 44.19) and now. Historically, every period with a CAPE above 35 was followed by a significant correction within 1–5 years.

Current CAPE (Oct 2026)
41.04
+135% above median
Historical Average
17.44
Mean 1871–2026
Historical Median
16.13
Median 1871–2026
Crash Probability (CAPE > 35)
76%
Chance of >20% loss within 5 years
Expected 10Y Return
0–2%
Historical at current levels
Overvaluation vs. Median
+154%
vs. the all-time lowest point

📊 Crash Probability Meter — Real-Time Assessment

76%
Crash risk score

The Crash Probability Score is calculated based on: (1) CAPE percentile rank in historical distribution, (2) distance from the historical average, (3) historical % of crashes following this CAPE level.

Safe Caution Danger Extreme
✅ Safe
CAPE < 14
🔵 Fair
CAPE 14–20
⚠️ Caution
CAPE 20–27
🟠 Danger
CAPE 27–35
🚨 Extreme
CAPE > 35

📈 Shiller PE Ratio — Historical Timeline (1920–2026)

Coloured zones indicate risk levels. Vertical lines mark major S&P 500 crashes.

💥 Historic Crashes vs. CAPE Ratio

Crash Period Name CAPE before crash Max. S&P 500 loss Duration (months) Recovery (years)

🧮 Statistical Analysis — Crash Probability by CAPE Zone

Based on 155 years of historical data (1871–2026): what is the probability of a significant correction (>20%) within 1, 3 and 5 years, depending on the CAPE at the time of measurement?

📐 Formula: Crash Probability Score

CAPE Percentile95.8 / 100
Distance from average+135%
Historical crash % at CAPE>3576%
Weighted Score76 / 100
Risk Category🚨 EXTREME

📊 Historical Mean Reversion

After Dot-com (2000)-49.1% (27 mo)
After Financial Crisis (2007)-56.8% (17 mo)
After Black Tuesday (1929)-86.2% (34 mo)
Avg. loss at CAPE>30-38.4%
Avg. recovery period4.2 years

🎯 Required CAPE Drop for Normalisation

Target: historical average (17.44)-57.5% S&P drop
Target: median (16.13)-60.7% S&P drop
Target: CAPE = 25 (overvalued)-39.1% S&P drop
Target: CAPE = 30 (elevated)-26.9% S&P drop
Methodvia earnings growth or price decline
⚖️ LEGAL DISCLAIMER — NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE

The information, data, analysis, statistics, charts, and commentary contained in this dashboard are provided for informational and educational purposes only. Nothing on this page constitutes, or should be construed as, financial advice, investment advice, trading advice, or any other type of advice. The content does not take into account your individual financial situation, investment objectives, risk tolerance, or personal circumstances.

Past performance of financial markets, indices, or any other financial instrument is not indicative of future results. Historical correlations between valuation metrics such as the Shiller PE Ratio (CAPE) and subsequent market performance do not guarantee similar outcomes in the future. All investments carry risk, including the possible loss of principal.

The statistical probabilities and scenarios presented herein are based on historical data and are purely analytical in nature. They are not predictions, forecasts, or recommendations. No representation or warranty, express or implied, is made as to the accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of the information provided.

Before making any financial or investment decision, you should consult a qualified and regulated independent financial adviser who is authorised to give advice in your jurisdiction. The author and publisher of this dashboard accept no liability whatsoever for any loss or damage arising directly or indirectly from the use of, or reliance on, any information contained herein.